"Indications are that the ban on the sale of tobacco products will be extended beyond Level 4 of lockdown and into Level 1," he warned. Calling the tobacco ban "rushed and ill-conceived", Louw said the law of unintended consequences was at play. "As at the end of April, Treasury has lost in excess of R300m in excise duty from tobacco products, the illicit trade has been handed the market on a plate and is charging extortionate prices. People have not stopped smoking. Government has turned 11 million smokers into criminals overnight," he said.

He said the significant results in combatting the illegal trade have been thrown away. "The future looks bleak for the legitimate industry including all of the informal traders and small retailers who rely on tobacco sales to make a living. This will be very difficult to combat in the future. The illegal tobacco trade has cost South Africa more than R40 billion in lost taxes since 2010," he said. He questioned claims that tobacco products increased the spread of Covid-19. "Where is the evidence that tobacco products increase the spread of Covid-19, or why tobacco products are singled out when other goods are shared such as food, drinks or communal toilets? Why aren't they banning sugar since studies of Chinese Covid-19 patients shows that the death rate was three times higher in patients with diabetes?" he said.

Recent research by UCT's Research Unit on the Economics of Excisable Products has proven that the vast majority of smokers in South Africa continue to purchase cigarettes under the lockdown and that they have simply switched their buying behaviour from law-abiding, tax compliant shops that employ vast numbers of South Africans, to the illegal market, and often travel long distances to procure illegal products.